Modelling the impact of Brexit on poverty in the UK

Cambridge Econometrics was commissioned by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation to explore the impact of Brexit on poverty in the UK, focusing specifically at the poorest 1/5th of households.

The analysis models a range of post-Brexit trading agreements, providing detailed results on the potential impacts on the cost of living, wages and employment looking ahead to 2030.

The analytic report can be found here:

The Impact of Brexit on Poverty in the UK

This ranged from staying in the single market (a ‘Norway’ scenario) to ‘no deal’, taking into account tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade, immigration and investment.

The analysis shows that, in all scenarios, the cost of living is likely to rise and real wages to fall after the UK leaves the EU in the immediate period, however a ‘no deal’ scenario is likely to have the largest negative effects on costs and wages.

Under a ‘no deal’ scenario the study estimates that living costs for low-income households are estimated to increase by £480 per year and that food prices would rise by 8%.

To discuss the report in more detail, including our methodology and assumptions, please contact Sophie Heald.