Latest Developments

Modelling the regional impacts of macro scenarios: Just transition in the Czech Republic

In response to the increasing policy need to assess the distributional effects of transition to low-carbon economy, Cambridge Econometrics has developed a novel method to model local impacts, by disaggregating E3ME simulation results into regional (NUTS-2) estimates. This article…

Switzerland’s energy system: How E3ME worked with STEM, the Swiss energy system model

Commissioned by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), Cambridge Econometrics worked together with the Swiss Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) to study the link between energy pricing and the energy consumption of electricity and natural gas in Switzerland. Dora Fazekas explains …

Making assumptions right in climate modelling

A recent paper written by the economist Steve Keen has been causing a storm on Twitter. It is called ‘The appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate change’ (see also here). The paper takes aim at the small-scale ‘Integrated Assessment Models’ that have in the past…

Coronavirus: initial results from economic modelling

Global GDP: we currently project the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce global GDP by 5% below a no-virus baseline in 2020 and 2021

Private indebtedness: the impacts on private indebtedness suggest that the subsequent recovery will be slow: while pre-crisis growth rates are restored, the lost level of GDP is not made up (a similar profile to what followed the Great Recession)

Government action: to mitigate those impacts further, governments will need to scale up the socialisation of private debt (through direct subsidy) and not merely ensure that liquidity is provided